The Pants Predicts: Iowa at Michigan State - Black Heart Gold Pants

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We’re back to feeling confident - what could go wrong!

The Hawkeyes hit the road and head to East Lansing for a showdown under the lights with the Michigan State Spartans. After a dominant home win against Washington a week ago, Iowa will now be road tested against an opponent coming off a bye.

Our friends in Vegas expect the Hawkeyes to handle their business, though it’s worth noting this has been trending closer as the week has gone on. DraftKings Sportsbook opened this one at Iowa -6.5 with an over/under set at 41.5 total points. That has drifted lower as time has passed, settling at Iowa -5.5 with an over/under at 39.5 total points as of Friday morning. That implies a final score of 22.5-17 in favor of the Hawkeyes.

Here at The Pants, we’re.... more confident than Vegas, which feels strange to type. Amongst the participating staff, all but one of us is on Iowa to win and most rather comfortably. On average, we’re expecting a final score of Iowa 27, MSU 15. That puts us easily on the Hawks giving the points and again on the over. Notably, the Hawkeyes are 5-1 on the over so far this season. What a world.

Here’s a look at our individual predictions for Saturday’s matchup.

The Spartans are an interesting matchup for Iowa. They have a good new coach and a talented roster. They’re capable of beating Iowa, particularly under the lights in East Lansing. But they also turn the ball over a ton and that’s perhaps the best recipe to end up on the wrong side of a Phil Park squeeze.

I think this one is close through the half but ultimately we see Aidan Chiles turn the ball over at least twice and the Hawkeyes are able to lean on the run game to come out with a win.

Prediction: Iowa 27, MSU 17

I’m a bit nervous about this game. It feels like every year the Hawks lose a game (or more) they “should” win. I’m happy with the direction our offense is going. Our special teams have been pretty good, except for the Troy punt return. Phil is getting our defense ironed out like he always does. And that is why I’m nervous. All good things must end. I don’t have a great feeling, but I’ve been known to be wrong a time or two (or hundreds). Go Hawks!

Prediction: Michigan State 23, Iowa 20

I did my first deep dive on Michigan State this week. They turn the ball over a TON. 14 turnovers through 6 games, with only a single game where they haven’t had a turnover (against their worst opponent so far in Prairie View A&M). They are -6 for the year, which is 119th in turnover margin nationally. Aidan Chiles has committed 11 turnovers himself - 8 picks and 3 lost fumbles. He’s also been sacked 13 times so far. Their rush defense is ok, but nothing special (59th nationally at 130.8 yards allowed per game). The rush offense is poor - 102nd nationally. They are penalized a ton, tied for 89th nationally (Iowa’s the least-penalized team in the nation, by comparison).

There is potential there in East Lansing, but this is the wrong opponent for where Michigan State currently is as a program.

Prediction: Iowa 34, Michigan State 13

Last weekend felt like just the tonic Iowa’s season needed. It was the most complete game the Hawkeyes have played this season and it showed what this team is capable of while still leaving room for them to grow. Now they face a new challenge of doing it all over again but in hostile territory.

Michigan State has the pieces of a pretty good team with a coach who can put them all together. They’re 3-3 on the year but that’s a little misleading since two of those losses were to Ohio State and Oregon, and even then they’re in the top third in total defense. As has already been pointed out their bugaboo has been turnovers and penalties, which is a bad combination when facing the Hawkeyes.

I don’t think we’ll get as complete a game as we did last Saturday, rather one more along the lines of the Minnesota game only a little closer. A late field goal puts Iowa up by two scores in the fourth and they hold on for the win.

More like Least Lansing, am I right? I’ll see myself out.

Prediction: Iowa 26, Michigan State 17

Winning on the road in the Big Ten is always a challenge, and the Hawkeyes had plenty of trouble shutting the door on a very weak Spartans team when the two squads met last year. But Iowa is a very tough matchup for Michigan State. The Spartans are one of the most turnover and penalty-prone teams in college football, and Iowa, which has played mistake-free football for most of the season, is a team poised to capitalize on those miscues. There is some potential for the Spartan passing game to make some hay against a Hawkeye secondary that has been inconsistent this season. Quarterback Aidan Chiles is oozing with talent, and and wide receiver Nick Marsh and tight end Jack Velling make for a formidable set of targets. But unless Chiles can play their best game of the season by far and find a way to stop Kaleb Johnson, it could be rough sledding for the Spartans.

Prediction: Iowa 27, Michigan State 13

This was a game that I had pegged as a potential loss at the beginning of the season, one of the inevitable games in a season where Iowa plays down to the competition and gets beat for no discernible reason. MSU has talent, but they’re a mess and their rush defense (which isn’t all that bad) is worse than Washington and Minnesota (teams that gave up 350+ yards and 4 TDs to Kaleb Johnson on the ground).

To be honest, I think this is a blowout in the making. We’ve got a team in MSU that seems to thoroughly enjoy given their opponent the ball and an Iowa defense that really enjoys taking the ball away and an offense that seems to have finally figured out that you can score touchdowns off of turnovers (at least some of the time). I will probably regret this (if only because I’m setting myself up for disappointment), but you know what they say, “Go big or Go home!”

Prediction: Iowa 35, Michigan State 10

Hello folks, and hello to my mother-in-law, who was concerned that I didn’t put in a prediction last week. I can assure you that I would not have predicted that kind of performance. This week is again, kind of a toss-up for me. I am overall pleased with the way this offense is progressing, and I think this defense, while weaker than we’d like, can handle mid-level teams. So I think Iowa wins, but you never know. I’m going to predict something a bit close again this week to wait and see if my budding optimism is misguided, but I think the Hawks come home with a win. Not winning in EL since 2012 is CRAZY to me.

Prediction: Iowa 20, Michigan State 13

So that’s how we see things playing out. How about you, Hawkeyes fans? Let us know what you think happens under the lights in East Lansing in the comments below!